2023 AFL REPORT
From October 16th through the 20th, I stayed in Scottsdale where I attended 7 Arizona Fall League (AFL) games in 4 ballparks. I went with best friend Vince Lauter and wife Sharry from Monterey. I also saw a game with goodfriend Nate Perrizo from Mesa. The weather was sunny with record breaking highs ranging from 99-104 in the day to the low 90’s for night games. My 23rd AFL trip provided plenty of action from which to pick the best prospects.
Rule Changes Tested in AFL
Ball-Strike Challenge
The AFL has been a testing ground for proposed rule changes. In 2022, changes tested included the timer clock, defensive shift restrictions and increased size of the bases. These rule changes were implemented at the MLB level and proved to be a resounding success as they quickened pace of the game and added more action.
At one ballpark, I saw the continued testing of an automatic ball-strike system. Under this system, the ball-strike call of the human umpires can be challenged and compared to the automatic system like what is shown on TVduring a game (above). Each team gets three challenges per game, though a team keeps its challenge if it is successful. Only pitchers, catchers, and managers can challenge a ball-strike call.
I was surprised by the short time being taken on the ball-strike challenge. I have witnessed challenges in 2022 and 2023. The time taken was about 15 seconds. When challenges are bunched together, the delays can be distracting. However, many challenges are successful and worth the effort to get the call right.
Prior Year Prospects Revisited
Before discussing this year’s AFL players, I will review how the following table of players on my 2022 prospect list fared during the past year. What happened to those budding prospects?
Only 3 of my 10 picks played in the Majors in 2023. Jordan Walker batted .276 with 16 HR’s and 51 RBI’s and learned a new position (Right Field) at the MLB level. Matt Mervis was brought up mid-season by the Cubs and given a chance to play 1st Base. After 90 AB’s hitting .167, he was sent down for further seasoning. Heston Kjerstad was brought up at the end of the season and subject to limited MLB exposure.
None of my other 2022 picks had breakout minor league seasons. The remaining prospects had limited play or poor seasons. Hopefully they will rebound in 2024 and progress to the Majors.
2023 AFL Picks
The AFL Class of 2023 had 10 of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects, the same number as last year. I was fortunate to see eight of them missing Ricky Tiedemann (Blue Jays pitcher) and Harry Ford (Mariners Catcher). Top pitching prospects sent to the AFL are usually limited to hurlers that need to make up innings lost due to injury. In recent years, most of the pitchers, particularly relievers, display a mid-90’s and higher fastball which makes it difficult to select any of them for my report.
AFL player eligibility has changed over time. Prior to 2019, each MLB organization could only provide one player below AA level, but as of 2021 all players within an MLB organization are eligible. The larger pool of players allows teams to do more than develop prospects. Players can be evaluated for inclusion on the 40-man roster. The 2023 rosters also included 8 players with ML experience that needed to make up for lost time due to injury. However, there are still plenty of prospects from which I can select for my list.
The table below provides the basic stats on each of my 2023 picks followed by some comments:
Oliver Dunn – Oliver is a stocky (5’10” 185 lbs.) late blooming utility grinder with an Engineering Degree. He was claimed off waivers by the Phillies in 2022. At the AA Level, he had a breakout season with 21 HR’s and an OBP of .396 in 119 games. I saw him go 3 for 8 with 2 triples, double and SB in 2 AFL games. He ended up hitting .343 with 12 SB’s. He showed a lot of energy on the field and bases. He should start the year at the AAA level and will be ready to go up to the ML when either an IF or OF opportunity arises.
Caleb Durham – Caleb is a longshot (D III) stocky (5’6” 185 lbs.) infielder who plays like he is very comfortable with AFL competition. At the AA level, he batted .304 with 36 SB’s in 69 games. I saw him go 4 for 8 with 2 doubles and a SB. I was most impressed with his bat control during an AB with a man on 3rd with 2 outs. He fought off many pitches before getting the run in on a groundout. He finished the AFL season with a .353 batting average and 21 SB’s. With a little more seasoning at the AAA level, he should be ready for the Big Leagues with the Yankees in a utility role.
Kyle Manzardo – Kyle was considered one of the best pure hitters in the 2021 College prospect draft class. In his first year, he excelled at lower levels and advanced to AA in his 1st Pro year. His lack of power and slight frame (6’0” 205 lbs.) made him work on improving his conditioning and strength after the 2022 season. While he demonstrated more power in 2023, he had a very busy 2023 season being traded to the Guardians, injuring his shoulder, and attending to his mother who had open heart surgery. The AFL gave him a chance to refocus. I saw him hit 2 HR’s in limited play. He hit a HR in the Fall Stars game and 2 HR’s in the Championship series. He finished the season with a .272 batting average and 6 HR’s. With the Guards need for hitting, he should be playing in Cleveland during 2024.
Benny Montgomery – Benny not only stands out for his size (6’4” 200 lbs.) but also for his plus tools of power, blazing speed, and arm strength even if they are raw. In the last 2 years, he has progressed to the A+ level in 2023 when he hit .251 in 97 games. Although he is making better contact at the plate, he needs to further develop his power and base running. He finished the AFL season, batting .333 and stealing 10 bases. He will need a full minor season and should be ready for the Rocks in 2025.
Colson Montgomery – Colson is a large (6’3” 205) lefthanded hitting shortstop and the highest rated prospect(37) in the AFL. In the last two years, he has been sidelined much of the time with injuries. Over 64 games in 2023, he batted .287 with eight home runs and 37 RBIs at the A+/AA levels. I saw him go 2 for 4 with a double. He hit .244 with 3 HR’s in 82 AB’s. With the Sox not picking up Tim Anderson’s option, the path is clear for Colson to make his ML debut during 2024.
Israel Pineda – Before the 2019 season, Israel was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Nationals' eighth-best prospect and top overall catching prospect. Pineda played for Surprise Saguaros in 2021. However, his ascent through the Nationals farm system has been hampered by injuries, particularly in 2023 when he started the season on the IL with a fractured finger. He plays very relaxed on the field with a lot of energy, constantly talking to teammates and opponents. I saw him go 3 for 6 with a HR and 2 walks. He hit .237 in 57 AB’s. He plays well behind the plate with a strong arm. With a pickup in his offense, he could get some ML time in 2024.
Gabriel Rincones – Gabriel was born in Boynton Beach, Florida, and over the next 10 years lived in Venezuela, Scotland, back to Venezuela, and finally landed in Tampa Florida where he graduated from Plant High School, same school as Pete Alonzo. At 6’4” 225 lbs., he projects to have plus power. In his first season (2023), he hit .248 with 19 HR’s in 120 games at the A/A+ level. His below average arm makes him a natural for LF. I saw him get 7 hits in 12 AB’s including a Double, Triple, and HR. He hit .293 with 2 HR’s and 15 SB’s. He needs work on contact and will need another year at the AA/AAA level.
Corey Rosier – At 5’10’ 180 lbs. and plenty of speed, Corey is a natural leadoff hitter. He has a good sense of the strike zone and can get on base. Other than speed his tools are considered average. However, his hard playing attitude allows him to get the most out of them. He had an OBP of .355 with 49 SB’s at the AA/AAA level. I saw him go 5 for 10 with 2 doubles and a SB. He ended up with an OBP of .355 and 8 SB’s. He should be given an opportunity to be on the Red Sox in 2024.
Victor Scott – Victor is a burner on the basepaths and in the outfield with max scouting grade of 80 for running. Both of his parents were collegiate track stars and gave him instant speed. This left-handed hitter has shown constant improvement at bat in college and the minors. This year he hit .303 with a minor league-leading 94 stolen bases at the A+/AA level. He got off to a slow start in the AFL and was 1 for 8 with a SB when I saw him. However, he came back strong after I left and ended hitting .286 with 18 SB’s. He will probably start 2024 at AAA level but should be ready to move up when an opening in the Cardinals OF takes place.
James Triantos – At 6’1” 195 lbs., James has a background of hitting for average and playing corner positions in infield and outfield with good range and a solid arm. This year, he hit .287 with 16 SB’s in 83 games at the A+AA level. At the AFL, he showed more plate discipline and aggressiveness on the bases. I saw him go 5 for 13 with a triple. He ended up hitting .417 with 3 HR’s and 8 SB’s. James was voted AFL’s offensive Player of the Year. His ability to play multiple positions will help his ascent to Cubs probably in late 2024.
Other Points of Interest
Prior to my 2nd AFL game, I noticed the home plate umpire had a ponytail and quickly realized that I would be watching Jen Pawol, a highly publicized umpire that is on a career path to become MLB’s 1st female umpire. She was in the news just before the AFL season for being the home-plate umpire at the Triple-A Championship game. Since her 2016 umpiring debut in Rookie ball, she has progressed to the Triple-A level. Currently, she is one of five women umpiring in professional baseball and the only one to do so above Single-A. The sign of a good umpire is one you don’t notice, and I hardly noticed Jen. I saw her in one more game in which one of the other umpires had to leave due to heat exhaustion (Daytime temp 102). She handled the situation very well. She gets along very well with the other umps which will bode well as she takes the next step to the Big Leagues.
Relatively speaking- Will Bednar, David’s younger brother, got into 6 AFL games as a reliever following 2 years of limited minor league activity due to injury. Will was 1st round pick of the Giants out of Mississippi. Jace Jung, Josh’s younger brother, was a 2022 1st draft of the Tigers. He hit .265 with 28 HR’s and 82 RBI’s. I saw him in only game where he singled and walked twice.
Best nickname– Ivan Melendez is a 1st baseman in the D-Backs organization. He went to the University of Texas and was a 2nd round pick in 2022. This year he hit .272 with 30 HR’s at the A+/AA level. He showed some agility around 1st base in the one game I saw him play. At 6’3” 225 lbs., his nickname, the Hispanic Titanic, comes from his size.
Two-Way Player – Reggie Crawford is a DH/pitcher drafted in the 1st Round 2022 by the Giants. At the University of Connecticut, he was left-handed starter and played 1st when not pitching. He led the Big East in HR’s with 13 in 2021. During a 2021 Fall Scrimmage, he was hurt pitching and had TJ surgery. In 2022 and 2023 he has seen limited action, mostly pitching at the A/A+ level. He was used strictly as a hitter in the AFL. I saw him go 2 for 6 with one towering HR. He finished batting .138 with 30 K’s and 2 HR’s in 71 PA’s. His inactivity and inexperience at the plate was evident. He will need more AB’s if he going to be a two-way player.
Traveling from Faraway Places – At the AFL you are bound to see a few players from distant lands and this year there were three such players:
Alessandro Ercolani – Alessandro is from San Marino, a small country landlocked inside of northeastern Italy. The righty hurler was noticed by the Pirates pitching in the Italian Baseball League and signed in 2021 at the age of 17. In 2023, he reached the A level starting 15 games and compiling a 4-5 record. At 19, he was the youngest player in the AFL this year. He relieved in 4 games and was the winner in one of them.
Mitch Neunborn – Mitch was born in South Africa and resides in Australia. The 26-year-old righty pitched in the 2023 WBC for Team Australia and was noticed by the Phillies. This year he started 10 games and had a 3-4 record at the A level. He ended up relieving in 3 AFL games and going 1-0.
Hao-Yu Lee – Lee played on the Chinese Taipei national baseball team in multiple international tournaments. He was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies as an international free agent on June 15, 2021, and received a $500,000 signing bonus. On August 1, 2023, Lee was traded to the Detroit Tigers for pitcher Michael Lorenzen.
Even with the hot weather, I really enjoyed seeing MLB prospects playing under ideal conditions – intimate atmosphere, and good play. I look forward to going again next year.
